Like the rest of the world, the drone industry faces the potential for significant transformation following Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election. Given his previous administration’s approach to regulation and trade, there are both challenges and opportunities for the industry, so let’s explore what some of these may be.

During his first term, Trump made substantial changes to [military] drone export policies, reinterpreting the Missile Technology Control Regime to ease restrictions on armed drone sales abroad. This shift aimed to help U.S. manufacturers compete against Chinese and Russian alternatives, though industry analysts noted these changes needed to go further to address fundamental market access issues.

Nevertheless, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its duration have led to many commercial drone companies entering more government and military contracts. And whether the incoming Trump administration ultimately decides to support Ukraine or not, the financial incentive is now there for drone companies to seek these contracts.

Beyond the traditional drone sector, Trump’s vision extends to Advanced Air Mobility (AAM). In his 2023 Agenda47 speech, he emphasized wanting “to ensure that America, not China, leads the revolution in air mobility,” positioning this as part of a broader initiative to transform transportation and connect rural and urban America.

Trump’s previous approach to international trade significantly impacted the drone industry. His administration’s efforts to ease the drone export process for U.S. manufacturers revealed tensions between commercial interests and security concerns. The State Department’s strong presumption of denial for specific drone categories remained a significant barrier to international market access despite domestic industry pressure for more comprehensive reforms.

This time, Trump’s administration reportedly seeks to implement a 20% blanket levy on all US imports, with Chinese products facing tariffs between 60-100%. This aggressive stance could trigger retaliatory measures from other economies, potentially disrupting global drone supply chains and forcing companies to diversify their manufacturing bases.

Additionally, the American Security Drone Act of 2023, incorporated into the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, has already begun reshaping the industry by prohibiting federal agencies from purchasing or using drones manufactured in countries deemed national security threats.

Once again, the US-China competition extends into the AAM sector, where autonomy capabilities have become a critical battleground. China currently leads in this area, with EHang’s EH-216 already certified for commercial operations, while the nearest US competitor, Wisk Aero, is targeting passenger services by the end of the decade.

Of course, these implications are particularly significant given that Chinese manufacturers DJI and Autel currently dominate 74% of the US drone market while EHang is the only operational eVTOL company in the world.

The transition to approved manufacturers presents multiple challenges. The shift requires substantial operational adjustments, including new equipment procurement, updated procedures, and comprehensive staff retraining. Public safety agencies are already experiencing significant disruption in their drone programs. Some organizations have completely terminated their drone operations due to restrictions on Chinese-manufactured aircraft, as national alternatives are too expensive.

These changes create immediate operational gaps while presenting opportunities for domestic manufacturers to fill the void.

Trump’s previous term demonstrated a clear pattern of regulatory rollbacks, with his administration eliminating eight old regulations for every new one adopted. Meanwhile, the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2024 has established new frameworks for drone integration, including the first federal grant program specifically for drone-based infrastructure inspections.

This program aims to help state and local governments establish and expand their drone inspection capabilities. Additionally, although not initiated by Trump, the $20 million allocation for drone workforce education and training programs by the FAA demonstrates a commitment to developing domestic expertise, which can only enhance the impact of the upcoming administration on the drone industry.

The administration’s policies are expected to yield substantial economic impacts:

• Potential increase in domestic manufacturing jobs
• Higher operational costs for drone service providers
• Market consolidation favoring larger, established players
• Accelerated development of domestic drone technology alternatives

The combination of protectionist policies and security-focused legislation is creating a complex operating environment for drone manufacturers and operators. Public safety agencies must now navigate significant operational changes, including the need to:

• Reconfigure patrol and response vehicles
• Reevaluate FAA Certificates of Authorization
• Rebuild entire drone programs to accommodate new requirements

These changes represent unprecedented challenges and opportunities for the commercial drone industry, requiring stakeholders to carefully navigate an evolving regulatory and economic landscape while maintaining operational capabilities and market competitiveness. The industry’s future success will largely depend on how effectively domestic manufacturers can scale up production to meet demand while maintaining quality standards.